Geschrieben von: / Posted by: Dann Corbit at 07 July 2000 06:44:49:
Als Antwort auf: / As an answer to: Re: Yace 0.20 versus some engines geschrieben von: / posted by: Aaron at 07 July 2000 05:53:08:
[snip]
Fortress is no slouch at long time controls.
The win expectancy for a program of ELO 2329 verses 2143 is 0.255270 for the >weaker program. Hence, an occasional win should hardly be a surprise.
Probably, but Fortress "feels" beatable by me, while Yace doesn't..That could contribute to my surprise..
You are assuming that there is a 200 elo difference? So for every 4 games, the weaker program will win 1 (25%?), hmm..didn't know that..I assumed that the gap was wider..
Where do The elo figures you provide,come from? The BOC calibration runs?
Not necessarily a win. Could be two draws or a win or whatever. It is based on points scored, but not how they are arrived at.
Here is the output of ELO calculation program USCF.C from my ftp site:
Win expectency for a difference of 0 points is 0.5
Win expectency for a difference of 100 points is 0.359935
Win expectency for a difference of 200 points is 0.240253
Win expectency for a difference of 300 points is 0.15098
Win expectency for a difference of 400 points is 0.0909091
Win expectency for a difference of 500 points is 0.0532402
Win expectency for a difference of 600 points is 0.0306534
Win expectency for a difference of 700 points is 0.0174721
Win expectency for a difference of 800 points is 0.00990099
Win expectency for a difference of 900 points is 0.00559197
Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231
Win expectency for a difference of 1100 points is 0.00177512
Win expectency for a difference of 1200 points is 0.000999001
Win expectency for a difference of 1300 points is 0.000562025
Win expectency for a difference of 1400 points is 0.000316128
Win expectency for a difference of 1500 points is 0.000177796
Win expectency for a difference of 1600 points is 9.999e-005
Win expectency for a difference of 1700 points is 5.6231e-005
Win expectency for a difference of 1800 points is 3.16218e-005
Win expectency for a difference of 1900 points is 1.77825e-005
Win expectency for a difference of 2000 points is 9.9999e-006
Win expectency for a difference of 2100 points is 5.62338e-006
Win expectency for a difference of 2200 points is 3.16227e-006
Win expectency for a difference of 2300 points is 1.77828e-006
Win expectency for a difference of 2400 points is 9.99999e-007
Win expectency for a difference of 2500 points is 5.62341e-007
Win expectency for a difference of 2600 points is 3.16228e-007
Win expectency for a difference of 2700 points is 1.77828e-007
Win expectency for a difference of 2800 points is 1e-007
Win expectency for a difference of 2900 points is 5.62341e-008
Win expectency for a difference of 3000 points is 3.16228e-008
here is the ELOSTAT aggregation at standard time controls for the programs currently in the "Battle of the Crowns" contest:
Program Elo + - Games Score Av.Op. Draws
--------------- ---- --- --- ---- ------ ------ -------
Crafty : 2514 16 21 1134 67.0 % 2391 25.7 %
SOS : 2442 25 28 566 60.0 % 2372 21.7 %
LGoliath : 2431 22 19 854 53.7 % 2405 26.2 %
Comet : 2430 17 16 1318 56.3 % 2386 24.1 %
AnMon : 2409 23 19 861 52.0 % 2395 24.2 %
Phalanx : 2395 18 21 1000 48.6 % 2404 20.7 %
Gromit3 : 2385 38 30 342 50.3 % 2383 21.6 %
TCBishop : 2375 20 24 800 47.5 % 2393 21.8 %
Amy : 2357 25 36 486 64.6 % 2253 13.6 %
Gromit2 : 2357 25 27 545 44.1 % 2398 24.4 %
Francesca : 2338 24 27 573 45.1 % 2372 25.3 %
Yace : 2329 34 29 371 52.8 % 2309 24.3 %
ZChess : 2328 22 25 705 47.4 % 2346 23.0 %
Bringer : 2311 26 30 503 48.6 % 2321 21.3 %
ArasanX : 2285 36 31 348 51.6 % 2274 20.4 %
LambChop : 2279 40 34 294 38.8 % 2358 19.7 %
GnuChess4 : 2259 63 67 103 47.6 % 2275 13.6 %
Ant : 2253 31 28 464 52.9 % 2233 19.2 %
InmiChess3 : 2237 41 46 215 47.7 % 2253 17.2 %
ExChess3 : 2225 26 28 564 56.5 % 2180 15.4 %
Knightx : 2206 50 48 174 43.1 % 2254 17.2 %
InmiChess2 : 2197 96 76 59 34.7 % 2306 18.6 %
Dragon : 2163 59 36 212 30.0 % 2311 15.6 %
GnuChess5 : 2154 50 66 130 64.2 % 2052 16.2 %
Fortress : 2143 67 66 96 54.7 % 2111 15.6 %
LDBlanche : 2121 55 42 179 34.9 % 2230 19.6 %
Amyan : 2088 49 54 170 55.3 % 2051 8.2 %
Gully2 : 2067 62 59 123 51.2 % 2058 9.8 %
ColChess : 2056 65 69 92 58.2 % 1999 18.5 %
Cilian : 2045 46 40 217 39.2 % 2121 20.3 %
SSEChess : 2007 79 49 117 30.3 % 2152 14.5 %
Sjeng : 2002 48 42 205 40.2 % 2071 17.1 %
Averno : 1990 61 34 239 31.0 % 2129 7.5 %
Crux : 1970 87 97 52 48.1 % 1983 15.4 %
Freyr : 1962 63 97 83 64.5 % 1858 3.6 %
DChess : 1918 76 56 112 38.8 % 1997 6.2 %
NewRival : 1912 87 68 73 35.6 % 2015 16.4 %
Faile : 1904 92 65 80 35.6 % 2007 8.8 %
Chessterfield : 1860 65 20 503 19.6 % 2106 4.2 %
Monik : 1839 73 67 85 53.5 % 1814 17.6 %
TSCP : 1815 50 47 184 43.8 % 1859 13.6 %
LarsenVB : 1770 200 169 15 30.0 % 1917 20.0 %
Zephyr : 1752 144 68 55 21.8 % 1973 10.9 %
SnailSCP : 1742 111 69 61 28.7 % 1901 14.8 %
Ozwald : 1727 68 66 91 42.3 % 1781 18.7 %
Noonian : 1690 158 47 90 14.4 % 1999 6.7 %
Storm : 1651 130 47 105 21.0 % 1882 1.9 %
Golem01 : 1383 196 48 79 7.6 % 1817 10.1 %
Raffaela : 1129 0 0 5 0.0 % 1729 0.0 %
my ftp site